How Will Israel Attack Iran?

Saturday, August 18, 2012

Pierluigi Paganini

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(Translated from the original Italian)

We have long discussed the possibility of an Israeli attack against Iran, and security experts have long sought out signs that presage an imminent attack.

We all know about the potential of the Israeli military, a war machine that is characterized by an impressive technological component. Israel has one of the most advanced cyber armies and many experts believe that its intelligence is responsible for the creation of the most advanced cyber weapons.

Due to these considerations, it is expected that in the first phase of an offensive against the government of Teheran, Israel will conduct a cyber attack of impressive dimensions with the intent to paralyze the country by knocking out the Internet, all communications and other critical infrastructure.

This is the new way to engage in a war, using a cyber strategy to attack the enemy creating the best conditions for a conventional  military strike that could be advanced by the chaos created.

One of the more popular bloggers, Richard Silverstein, provided documents that demonstrate an imminent Israeli attack is possible, describing tactics and strategies of the offensive.

The blogger announced that wide-spread cyber attacks against critical systems of Iran will cause a global blackout that will make the country vulnerable to a subsequent military advance.

Silverstein suggests in the second phase a missile attack will destroy Iran's defenses, explaining in detail what could be the likely targets, such as the nuclear power plant in Arak, facilities for production of nuclear fuel in Isfahan, and the plant at Fordow.

The documents also referred to the widespread use of technological tools such as the "Blue and White" radar satellite, whose systems enable them to perform an evaluation of the level of damage done to the various targets, will pass over Iran.

"Only after rapidly decrypting the satellite’s data, will the information be transferred directly to war planes making their way covertly toward Iran. 
These IAF planes will be armed with electronic warfare gear previously unknown to the wider public, not even revealed to our U.S. ally.  This equipment will render Israeli aircraft invisible. Those Israeli war planes which participate in the attack will damage a short-list of targets which require further assault."

Among of the other targets approved for attack—the Shihab 3 and Sejil ballistic missile silos, storage tanks for chemical components of rocket fuel, industrial facilities for producing missile control systems, centrifuge production plants.

The documents also speak of use of new electronic weapons whose existence "is not known even to our U.S. allies." Another sign that portends an imminent attack is a declaration by Matan Vilnai, a former Israeli Defence Minister, claiming that Israel had "prepared as never before".

"There is no room for hysteria..." said the former general, who is stepping down at the end of August to become Israel's ambassador to China. He echoed an assessment by Defence Minister Ehud Barak, who said that it was believed that some 500 people in Israel might be killed.

"There might be fewer dead, or more, perhaps... but this is the scenario for which we are preparing, in accordance with the best expert advice.The assessments are for a war that will last 30 days on several fronts..."

About the new technologies... alarms now also come via SMS... meanwhile, the Army is testing a system to alert by SMS to warn people in the event of missile attacks. But what would happen if a cyber attack took out communications Israeli?

In a conflict there are too many variables that can influence the scenario, let's think for example to the Iranian cyber capabilities that could surprise the world. Is Israel ready to neutralize them?

Cross-posted from Security Affairs

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